Optimizing survival outcomes, such as patient survival or customer retention, is a critical objective in data-driven decision-making. Off-Policy Evaluation~(OPE) provides a powerful framework for assessing such decision-making policies using logged data alone, without the need for costly or risky online experiments in high-stakes applications. However, typical estimators are not designed to handle right-censored survival outcomes, as they ignore unobserved survival times beyond the censoring time, leading to systematic underestimation of the true policy performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework for OPE and Off-Policy Learning~(OPL) tailored for survival outcomes under censoring. Specifically, we introduce IPCW-IPS and IPCW-DR, which employ the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting technique to explicitly deal with censoring bias. We theoretically establish that our estimators are unbiased and that IPCW-DR achieves double robustness, ensuring consistency if either the propensity score or the outcome model is correct. Furthermore, we extend this framework to constrained OPL to optimize policy value under budget constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate their practical impacts using public real-world data for both evaluation and learning tasks.

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear. Standard instrumental variables (IV) estimators, such as two-stage least squares (2SLS), become unreliable when instrument validity requires flexibly conditioning on many covariates with potentially non-linear effects. This paper develops a Double Machine Learning estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML), and introduces weak-identification diagnostics for it. We revisit three influential migration studies that use shift-share instruments. In these settings, instrument validity depends on a rich covariate adjustment. In one application, panel IV DML strengthens the predictive power of the instrument and broadly confirms 2SLS results. In the other cases, flexible adjustment makes the instruments weak, leading to substantially more cautious causal inference than conventional 2SLS. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings, showing that panel IV DML improves estimation accuracy under strong instruments and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.

Baseline Model As a baseline, we use the aforementioned linear Cox proportional hazard model[Cox72].

Classical machine learning classifiers tend to be overconfident can be unreliable outside of the laboratory benchmarks. Properly assessing the reliability of the output of the model per sample is instrumental for real-life scenarios where these systems are deployed. Because of this, different techniques have been employed to properly quantify the quality of prediction for a given model. These are most commonly Bayesian statistics and, more recently, conformal learning. Given a calibration set, conformal learning can produce outputs that are guaranteed to cover the target class with a desired significance level, and are more reliable than the standard confidence intervals used by Bayesian methods. In this work, we propose to use conformal learning with fuzzy rule-based systems in classification and show some metrics of their performance. Then, we discuss how the use of type 2 fuzzy sets can improve the quality of the output of the system compared to both fuzzy and crisp rules. Finally, we also discuss how the fine-tuning of the system can be adapted to improve the quality of the conformal prediction.

A significant challenge in this integration is maintaining the interpretability of the additive model component.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable instruction-following capabilities across various applications. However, their performance in multilingual settings remains poorly understood, as existing evaluations lack fine-grained constraint analysis. We introduce XIFBench, a comprehensive constraint-based benchmark for assessing multilingual instruction-following abilities of LLMs, featuring a novel taxonomy of five constraint categories and 465 parallel instructions across six languages spanning different resource levels. To ensure consistent cross-lingual evaluation, we develop a requirement-based protocol that leverages English requirements as semantic anchors. These requirements are then used to validate the translations across languages. Extensive experiments with various LLMs reveal notable variations in instruction-following performance across resource levels, identifying key influencing factors such as constraint categories, instruction complexity, and cultural specificity.

Large language model (LLM) agents typically adopt a step-by-step reasoning framework, in which they interleave the processes of thinking and acting to accomplish the given task. However, this paradigm faces a deep-rooted one-pass issue whereby each generated intermediate thought is plugged into the trajectory regardless of its correctness, which can cause irreversible error propagation. To address the issue, this paper proposes a novel framework called Generator-Assistant Stepwise Rollback (GA-Rollback) to induce better decision-making for LLM agents. Particularly, GA-Rollback utilizes a generator to interact with the environment and an assistant to examine each action produced by the generator, where the assistant triggers a rollback operation upon detection of incorrect actions. Moreover, we introduce two additional strategies tailored for the rollback scenario to further improve its effectiveness. Extensive experiments show that GA-Rollback achieves significant improvements over several strong baselines on three widely used benchmarks. Our analysis further reveals that GA-Rollback can function as a robust plug-and-play module, integrating seamlessly with other methods.

This paper reflects on the process of performing Thematic Analysis with Large Language Models (LLMs). Specifically, the paper deals with the problem of analytical saturation of initial codes, as produced by LLMs. Thematic Analysis is a well-established qualitative analysis method composed of interlinked phases. A key phase is the initial coding, where the analysts assign labels to discrete components of a dataset. Saturation is a way to measure the validity of a qualitative analysis and relates to the recurrence and repetition of initial codes. In the paper we reflect on how well LLMs achieve analytical saturation and propose also a novel technique to measure Inductive Thematic Saturation (ITS). This novel technique leverages a programming framework called DSPy. The proposed novel approach allows a precise measurement of ITS.